News in Scotland - Thursday

Polls point to a 'no' vote in next September's independence referendum


Scottish News: News in Scotland - Thursday


Scottish independence: Polls point to 'no' vote

The campaign against Scottish independence appears to be winning over Scots, according to fresh polls released with exactly one year to go before the independence referendum. An Ipsos Mori poll showed that, of those certain to vote, only 31 percent intended to vote 'yes' while 59 percent said they would vote 'no' while only 10 percent reported being still undecided. The Ipsos Mori poll shows little change from similar poll before the summer showing that the pro-independence campaign is failing to close the gap. A YouGov poll for The Times has the 'no' camp ahead on 52 percent and the pro-independence side on 32 percent with the remainder undecided. In a further setback for Alex Salmond's strategy to win over Scots to an independent Scotland a mock referendum held by schools in Aberdeenshire - where the SNP won every seat in the last Scottish parliament elections - found that of 11,000 pupils who will be eligible to vote in the referendum 9,000 intend to vote 'no'. The polls will be viewed as further evidence by pro-independence critics that the SNP leadership's referendum campaign strategy is failing to inspire voters.

UK crisis: Calls for bedroom tax to be scrapped

It has emerged that half of the families who are affected by the bedroom tax have gone into debt while housing associations have warned that they do not have enough smaller homes to offer people. The National Housing Federation have warned that its research shows that half of the residents under its jurisdiction who are affected by the tax, over 32,000 have been unable to pay their rent between April and June with one-quarter of those who have to pay the tax now in rent arrears for the first time. Fears are growing that as many as 50,000 people may now face eviction. Leading housing  groups have repeated calls for the scheme, which mostly impacts on people with disabilities, to be abandoned.

More Scottish news:


UK crisis: Food prices rocketing above official inflation

The official food price inflation has climbed well above the official 2.7 percent inflation rate as more and more Britons are forced into taking handouts from food banks. As the world is flooded with dollars which drives up the price of food globally food import costs in the UK are seeing consumer prices rise rapidly. In July the food price inflation rate stood at 4.4 percent with fruit up as much as 10 percent, with pears and apples up in price - compared to this time last year - by 30 and 36 percent respectively. The UK has debased the value of sterling more quickly than all its main trading competitors meaning it is more expensive to buy goods which come from abroad and so the policy is resulting in a dramatic drop in the standard of living and seeing more and more citizens falling into poverty. Scotiabank economist Alan Clarke told the BBC that food prices have been increasing because of "wars, crises, droughts, lots of rain - it all adds up and it's pushing food up". However the banker failed to mention the impact of increased credit (debt) and money printing by the Bank of England.

UK crisis: Consumer spending falls contradicting 'recovery' narrative

The dramatic rise in the price of food in the UK appears to be behind an “unexpected” fall in retail sales registered by the UK's Office of National Statistics. Sales fell by 0.9 percent which contrasted sharply with city forecasts which expected sales to rise by 0.4 percent. The figures come as it emerges that the UK's policy of devaluing sterling is partly behind the dramatic rise in food prices. As pounds are worth less compared to other currences imports of products become more expensive and so lead to a fall in the standard of living. In the last year apples have increased in price by 36 percent. The figures throw that Britain's so-called 'recovery' is questionable and may be a temporary phenomenon related to money printing policies by the Bank of England.


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commented 2013-09-20 20:22:12 +0100 · Flag
Lenny Hartley- and this is why such a contentious issue should perhaps not have been allowed to take place in Aberdeenshire schools- whining from some as the SNP did not manage to capture the hearts and minds of young people despite the offers of free cakes etc (Corrupt & Illegal Practices Act might apply here) and, if they had won, Salmon oozing over some embarassed children (although after his last attempt to get onto a school grounds- has he been PVG checked? it’s perhaps unlikely)
commented 2013-09-20 18:14:20 +0100 · Flag
Hi Lenny, Ok – I see what you mean in terms of samples. I was confused. The Holyrood polls should never have been based on Westminster voting intentions – that was bizarre (or manipulated to control public opinion) and produced very skewed results and explains why panelbase got that one right.

The difference this time is that by using Westminster or Holyrood voting intent neither are going to be really valid samples. Many vote SNP who think the Labour are incompetent devolution managers but they are emphatically against independence. Others can’t stand the SNP but are pro-independence. The Westminster voting intention is probably marginally more accurate because people would be voting on issues which are the same issues which independence relates to e.g. monetary policy, foreign affairs etc. I would guess though that the truth lies somewhere in between the two. The discrepancy with using Westminster voting intentions for a Holyrood election was wildly wrong however current referendum polls will not be that far out in my own estimation. The party voting preference weighting should be less influential in determining the sample.
commented 2013-09-20 13:59:42 +0100 · Flag
Hi Alexander thanks for your comments how do they square with the
article published in the Sunday Times and Newsnet Scotland by Ivor Knox (Managing Director of Panel Base?
commented 2013-09-20 12:58:29 +0100 · Flag
Hi Lenny, I think there is a misunderstanding about these polls. ST wrote articles arguing that the polls in the run up to the Holyrood elections in 2011 were based on Westminster voting intentions which is why no-one expected an SNP landslide. ST’s editor, then editor of a pro-indepedence news blog, broke the story on why the polls before the Holyrood elections were wrong. Alex Salmond has claimed that he (not the SNP) turned the vote around before the Holyrood election however there was no turning around as the SNP were ahead anyway.

The idea that panelbase are uniquely correct in their poll findings is therefore a notion that will not convince..

The referendum polls are NOT based on Westminster voting intentions. That idea is totally impractical because many labour voters will vote ‘yes’ and many SNP voters will vote ‘no’ and so no polling organisation would attempt this.

As far as ST is concerned, the story of the polls (weighted according to Westminster voting intentions) before the Holyrood election is being deliberately confused to try to explain away poor poll findings for the ‘yes’ camp.
commented 2013-09-20 10:44:44 +0100 · Flag
The article about the polls is straight from the Daily Heil, anybody who
cares to look can discover that all the polling companies apart from panelbase use weighting criteria based on Westminster voting intentions which are not a true reflection on the “real world”, As for the Skoolkids in Aberdeenshire, perhaps the writer of the article would care to investigate why this was the case and they might find that the no camp provided
under a Better Together logo a pack of lies and smears that should have
been brought to account by the organisers of the mock vote.
The fact that these lies were allowed to be disseminated leads to
suspicions that the poll was not conducted in a fair or impartial manner.
published this page in News 2013-09-19 13:31:28 +0100