The SNP would increase its Holyrood majority if there was an election
today, according to the latest poll IMAGE: Cameron Ings-Hodgson

Scottish independence: SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows

by Rosie Harrison

A new opinion poll gives the SNP cause to celebrate as their landslide victory last year would be supplemented by a few extra seats were an election held today.

The new seat tally according to poll, conducted by Panelbase, would see the following distribution of seats: SNP: 72 (69), Labour: 36 (37), Tory: 13 (15), LibDem: 5 (5), Green: 2 (2) and Ind: 1 (1)

In terms of popular vote the survey, commissioned by the Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland, puts the SNP on 47 percent (+2) on the constituency vote. Labour remain static in opposition at 32 percent. After their run in office at Westminster, both the Tories and the Liberal Democrats are down by 2 percent registering 12 and 6 percent respectively.

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The SNP have attributed the surge in their popularity to their successful governance, emphasising their distinction with their closest competitor, Labour. The party claims that it was Labour’s “no change” approach to Scottish politics and “unholy” Tory sympathies that gave them the edge.

They have also used this opportunity to shift the responsibility for forecasting Scotland’s future. After handling relentless doubts about an independent Scotland’s viability, the party intends to return the favour by urging Labour and the other anti-independence parties to expand upon their alternative vision.

The poll shows that there is not much between the three constitutional options, though retaining the status quo is lowest at 28 percent, more devolution is only slightly higher at 29 percent, with full independence ahead on 30 percent.

When asked straight out whether or not they support independence, the gap appears to be narrowing with 36 percent of Scots now intending to vote yes compared to 45 percent who said they would vote no.

The narrower gap when asked a straightforward yes/no question demonstrates that many Scots who favour a ‘devo max’ option do so as part of a two step strategy towards independence.

With the sample being limited to adults there is no telling how the polls would change if 16 and 17 year olds were included.

The Panelbase poll surveyed 1,012 adults in Scotland between 11th – 17th July 2012.

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