SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows

opinion-poll.jpg
The SNP would increase its Holyrood majority if there was an election
today, according to the latest poll IMAGE: Cameron Ings-Hodgson

Scottish independence: SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows

by Rosie Harrison

A new opinion poll gives the SNP cause to celebrate as their landslide victory last year would be supplemented by a few extra seats were an election held today.

The new seat tally according to poll, conducted by Panelbase, would see the following distribution of seats: SNP: 72 (69), Labour: 36 (37), Tory: 13 (15), LibDem: 5 (5), Green: 2 (2) and Ind: 1 (1)

In terms of popular vote the survey, commissioned by the Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland, puts the SNP on 47 percent (+2) on the constituency vote. Labour remain static in opposition at 32 percent. After their run in office at Westminster, both the Tories and the Liberal Democrats are down by 2 percent registering 12 and 6 percent respectively.

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The SNP have attributed the surge in their popularity to their successful governance, emphasising their distinction with their closest competitor, Labour. The party claims that it was Labour’s “no change” approach to Scottish politics and “unholy” Tory sympathies that gave them the edge.

They have also used this opportunity to shift the responsibility for forecasting Scotland’s future. After handling relentless doubts about an independent Scotland’s viability, the party intends to return the favour by urging Labour and the other anti-independence parties to expand upon their alternative vision.

The poll shows that there is not much between the three constitutional options, though retaining the status quo is lowest at 28 percent, more devolution is only slightly higher at 29 percent, with full independence ahead on 30 percent.

When asked straight out whether or not they support independence, the gap appears to be narrowing with 36 percent of Scots now intending to vote yes compared to 45 percent who said they would vote no.

The narrower gap when asked a straightforward yes/no question demonstrates that many Scots who favour a ‘devo max’ option do so as part of a two step strategy towards independence.

With the sample being limited to adults there is no telling how the polls would change if 16 and 17 year olds were included.

The Panelbase poll surveyed 1,012 adults in Scotland between 11th – 17th July 2012.

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@ThereWasACoo mentioned @ScottishTimes link to this page. 2012-07-29 11:49:33 +0100
SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/lFR0dZDI via @scottishtimes #IndyRef #VoteYes #bettertogether #YesScot
@itslegaltender tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 21:09:54 +0100
"@davidturnerw20: SNP with 15% lead over Labour in Poll http://t.co/8p3W2m7B" #indyref #scottishlabour oh dear Johann.
@ElaineKY2 tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 20:40:03 +0100
SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/gan0abNf via @scottishtimes
@I_Spiritus_I tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 20:30:38 +0100
@housty45 tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 20:29:26 +0100
SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/gan0abNf via @scottishtimes
@housty45 tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 20:28:06 +0100
SNP with 15% lead over Labour in New Poll... http://t.co/HbGTwceK
@housty45 tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 20:27:55 +0100
SNP with 15% lead over Labour in Poll http://t.co/yTpNEDm2
@MrSPECTRUM7 tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 19:59:55 +0100
SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/gan0abNf via @scottishtimes
@Graham_W_Barton mentioned @ScottishTimes link to this page. 2012-07-25 19:58:59 +0100
SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/gan0abNf via @scottishtimes
@DavidTurnerW20 tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 19:52:37 +0100
SNP with 15% lead over Labour in Poll http://t.co/yTpNEDm2
@DavidTurnerW20 tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-25 19:51:56 +0100
SNP with 15% lead over Labour in New Poll... http://t.co/HbGTwceK
commented 2012-07-25 19:28:35 +0100 · Flag
The inclusion of 16/17 year olds would increase the independence vote as far as voting intentions go. What percentage of the first timers show on polling day I suggest is a major key to the outcome. An overall low turn out will destroy its credibility if its possible for LONDON to do so. Be under no illusions young scots.If you get the vote YOU MUST USE IT or it will be branded a failure and surely withdrawn again. Those who fear independence because it might not be perfect should look at the alternative ! Its bankrupt Britain. You should fear staying ……………..not seceding !
@repnews tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-24 22:02:45 +0100
SNP & independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/JkgYu66C
@AlbertoGranado retweeted @ScottishTimes 2012-07-24 16:41:19 +0100
SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/5g2LKOCf #indyref #sp4 #libor #yesscotland #bettertogether
@psytac retweeted @ScottishTimes 2012-07-24 13:48:38 +0100
SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/5g2LKOCf #indyref #sp4 #libor #yesscotland #bettertogether
@alba1296 mentioned @ScottishTimes link to this page. 2012-07-24 13:39:21 +0100
SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows http://t.co/jPXJMKgS via @scottishtimes
commented 2012-07-24 11:32:30 +0100 · Flag
I think the brainwashing is still in effect,and a lot of people fear independence,but that is shifting and as people become more self-assured independence becomes the normal way of being.Those that want devo-max,are taking it in baby steps because they are still unsure of their own abilities,only confidence in themselves can help themselves.
@DerekScott1984 tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-24 10:44:44 +0100
http://t.co/Vf1K6jpZ SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows
@JamesMcLeary tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-24 10:40:01 +0100
http://t.co/Vf1K6jpZ SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows
@Independent_SCO tweeted link to this page. 2012-07-24 10:39:21 +0100
http://t.co/Vf1K6jpZ SNP and independence on the rise, new poll shows
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